Your allocation: the range of outcomes
You set the amount, the horizon and the mix. This page shows the range of values a model puts around that mix, net of Belgian tax — not a single number, because a single number about the future is the one thing nobody can honestly give you. It suggests no allocation and knows nothing about you.
Result
772 of 2,000 modelled futures. Counted on the value still standing in the market at the horizon, before the tax on selling. This is what the model did across the futures it walked — not a probability, and not a forecast.
Your chances of getting there, year by year
View as a table
| Year | At or above €100,000.00 |
|---|---|
| 0 | 0% |
| 1 | 0% |
| 2 | 0% |
| 3 | 0.05% |
| 4 | 0.95% |
| 5 | 2.5% |
| 6 | 4.2% |
| 7 | 5.4% |
| 8 | 8.5% |
| 9 | 11% |
| 10 | 13% |
| 11 | 16% |
| 12 | 19% |
| 13 | 21% |
| 14 | 24% |
| 15 | 26% |
| 16 | 29% |
| 17 | 31% |
| 18 | 34% |
| 19 | 36% |
| 20 | 38% |
How your money could grow
View as a table
| Year | Low end | Middle | High end |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | €49,946.00 | €49,946.00 | €49,946.00 |
| 1 | €44,033.72 | €51,123.85 | €59,702.73 |
| 2 | €42,505.02 | €52,365.51 | €65,139.32 |
| 3 | €41,457.26 | €53,641.31 | €70,552.80 |
| 4 | €40,764.72 | €54,924.52 | €75,654.10 |
| 5 | €39,875.61 | €56,322.17 | €81,714.73 |
| 6 | €40,373.21 | €57,737.30 | €85,021.30 |
| 7 | €40,063.32 | €59,197.13 | €90,509.57 |
| 8 | €39,567.98 | €60,712.03 | €96,733.04 |
| 9 | €39,482.56 | €62,276.92 | €102,742.87 |
| 10 | €39,530.63 | €63,866.32 | €108,469.08 |
| 11 | €40,089.44 | €65,565.21 | €112,720.93 |
| 12 | €40,107.65 | €67,280.95 | €119,005.04 |
| 13 | €40,193.24 | €69,091.11 | €125,886.25 |
| 14 | €39,777.26 | €70,909.70 | €134,420.06 |
| 15 | €39,710.71 | €72,763.50 | €143,250.12 |
| 16 | €39,588.91 | €74,858.52 | €152,460.97 |
| 17 | €39,864.57 | €76,760.21 | €160,019.04 |
| 18 | €40,511.67 | €79,054.42 | €166,561.66 |
| 19 | €40,456.64 | €81,247.04 | €176,924.81 |
| 20 | €40,727.32 | €83,479.08 | €186,788.41 |
The mix
- Cash10% · -0.5% a year · moves 1%10%€5,000.00
- Bonds30% · 1% a year · moves 6%30%€15,000.00
- Equities60% · 5% a year · moves 17%60%€30,000.00
At 20 years, after tax
- Low end of the range
- €40,727.32Your assumptions, priced through the Belgian tax engines · Not verified
- Middle of the range
- €83,479.08Your assumptions, priced through the Belgian tax engines · Not verified
- High end of the range
- €186,788.41Your assumptions, priced through the Belgian tax engines · Not verified
What Belgium takes
- Stock-exchange tax on the purchase
- €54.00
- Capital-gains tax at the middle of the range
- €0.00
This is the tax on the modelled path that ended in the middle of the range. Capital-gains tax turns on when each parcel was bought as well as on what it grew to, so it does not simply follow the size of the outcome — two futures ending at the same value can owe very different amounts.
No capital-gains tax appears because the whole position is held 10 years without interruption, which exempts the gain. Shorten the horizon below that and the tax reappears.
Assumptions and limits
- Cash
- -0.5% a year, moving 1%Long-run Belgian regulated savings rates against HICP inflation · Not verified
- Bonds
- 1% a year, moving 6%Long-run euro investment-grade bond returns, net of inflation · Not verified
- Equities
- 5% a year, moving 17%Long-run developed-market equity returns, net of inflation · Not verified
- The mix as a whole
- 3.25% a year, moving 12.1%
- Values are modelled as lognormal: each year multiplies the last by a random factor drawn from your return and volatility. It is a model, not a forecast, and reality is not obliged to be lognormal.
- The range is read off 2,000 simulated futures rather than a formula, so its edges carry a sampling error of roughly one percent — far smaller than the uncertainty in the assumptions themselves.
- The classes are assumed to move together. That is deliberately the pessimistic assumption — modelling how they really diverge would narrow the range, and a projection that quietly narrows its own range is the thing to distrust.
- A class left at zero yield is an accumulating holding, which the withholding never touches. Tell one it pays income out and that income carries 30% Belgian withholding, with only the rest compounding — and what is left is bought back as a parcel of its own, so it raises the cost basis and starts its own ten-year clock. What is not yet modelled is the stock-exchange tax on those repurchases, so the cost of a distributing holding is understated by that much. Savings interest is left out entirely — a regulated account is taxed under its own regime, not this one.
- Every figure is in today's euros: the returns are after inflation, so the amounts are comparable with what money buys now.
- The mix is bought once and never rebalanced. Contributions are placed at the weights you set, but a class that runs ahead is left to run ahead, and there are no trading costs beyond the stock-exchange tax on each purchase.
The link carries your figures: opened anywhere else, it shows exactly the same result.
How this number is reached
Each class in your mix is bought at the start, less the stock-exchange tax on that purchase, and any monthly contribution buys more of the same mix as it arrives. The page then simulates 2,000 futures for the whole mix — each year multiplying the last by a factor drawn from the return and volatility you set — and reads the range off them: the tenth percentile, the middle, and the ninetieth. At the horizon everything is sold, and the capital-gains engine prices it parcel by parcel, with the ten-year exemption and the annual exemption applied as they stand in the law.
A percentile is not a promise. "The tenth percentile is X" means that under these assumptions, one outcome in ten is worse than X — including some considerably worse. The width of the band is the honest part of this page; the middle of it is the part least worth reading on its own.
This page suggests nothing. It holds no profile of you, asks no questions about your situation, and never proposes or ranks an allocation. It is arithmetic on figures you entered, and it is not investment advice.
Frequently asked questions
Does this page tell me what to invest in?
No, and it is built so that it cannot. It never proposes, ranks or defaults to an allocation, asks nothing about your situation and stores no profile. You move the sliders and it does the arithmetic. The example mixes are generic illustrations, offered as a shortcut to setting four sliders, not as anything suited to anybody.
Why a range instead of a figure?
Because a figure would be false. The same mix over the same horizon has produced very different outcomes historically, and the spread is the most important thing a projection can tell you. The band here holds eight outcomes in ten under the stated assumptions; one in ten falls below it and one in ten above.
Where do the return and volatility figures come from?
From long-run published series, kept in the site's configuration with their sources and reviewed like anything else. They have not been checked against a licensed dataset, so they are marked as unverified on screen and the projection is never shown as verified. They are starting points: change any of them and the range follows.
Which Belgian taxes are applied?
Two. The stock-exchange tax on the opening purchase, at the rate of each class — cash is not bought on an exchange, and crypto is outside it. And the 2026 capital-gains tax when the position is sold at the horizon, with the ten-year exemption and the annual exemption applied by the same engine the rest of the site uses. Withholding on income actually paid out is not separated here; the compound-interest simulator prices that.
Why is the crypto sleeve off by default and capped?
Because no defensible expected return exists for it, and a sleeve with no ceiling is not opt-in in any meaningful sense. The model gives it a zero expected return and very high volatility, which makes its modelled middle fall over time — that is what those assumptions imply, not a forecast. Change them and the tool will show you what your assumptions imply instead.
Read more
- Investing in ETFs as an expat in Belgium: what applies to you and what to check
Yes, an expat living in Belgium can invest in ETFs — and Belgian tax rules then apply just as they do to any resident. Which taxes you meet, what changes when your broker or your account is foreign, and the extra checks that come with a second passport or a plan to move on.
- Investing for your child in Belgium: legal usufruct, gifting, and the step-up that does not exist
Most guidance you will find describes a Junior ISA or a custodial account. In Belgium a minor's income lands on the parents' return, and a gifted portfolio carries the donor's acquisition value with it.
- Before you buy the 2026 theme ETF: five things that differ on a niche fund
Memory chips, rare earths, space, defence, uranium. On a narrow thematic fund the thing that costs you most is exactly the thing that is least predictable: the TOB rate, the legal form, and the odds the fund closes.
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